Thomas J. Brailey
PhD Candidate (Nuffield College, University of Oxford)
Welcome! I am a PhD researcher in Politics at Nuffield College at the University of Oxford. I study the provision of security by state and non-state actors in Sub-Saharan Africa. My dissertation probes under what circumstances states accept, co-opt, or suppress non-state security providers. My research interests broadly include the political economy of development, political violence, and research transparency and reproducibility.
Between September and December 2026, I will be a visiting scholar at New York University.
I received my MPhil in Comparative Government (with distinction) from the University of Oxford in 2024. I received a Bachelor of Science in political science and data analytics (summa cum laude) from UC San Diego in 2020.
I hold ongoing research appointments at the University of Oxford and the LSE. In 2026, I was a data intern at the International Organization for Migration’s Kenya office. From 2020 to 2022, I served as a pre-doctoral fellow with J-PAL’s Payments and Governance Research Program. I have also served as a research assistant for the Center for the Study of African Political Economy and as a lab assistant for the Center for Peace and Security Studies.
Security Provision
- Conceptualizing Private Military and Security Companies. Conflict Management and Peace Science.
- Rethinking Public Goods Provision: State and Non-State Security Provision in Displacement Settings (with Pilar Sanchez-Bellosta). Under review.
- Policed to Distrust: Colonial Coercion and Contemporary Attitudes toward State Security.
- The Centralization of Security and Citizen Safety: Evidence from Mozambique.
- Chiefs and Security Provision in Malawi (with Alexander Yeandle) [Pre-Analysis Plan].
- How the State Legitimizes Non-State Security Provision.
Politics of Sub-Saharan Africa
- Coups and Social Trust: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Burkina Faso (with Robin Harding and Thomas Isbell). R&R at World Politics.
Meta-Science
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Reproducibility and Robustness of Economics and Political Science Research (5th author by contribution, with Abel Brodeur, Derek Mikola, Nikolai Cook, et al.). Nature.
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Tracing Dataset Usage in Political Science [Pre-Analysis Plan].
I4R Replication Reports
- A Robustness Reproduction of Martel et al. (2024): “On the Efficacy of Accuracy Prompts Across Partisan Lines: An Adversarial Collaboration” (with Edmund Kelly and Benedetta Giocoli).
- Reproduction and Robustness of Kao et al. (2024): “Female Representation and Legitimacy”. A Report from the 2024 UC Berkeley Replication Games (with Edmund Kelly, Angela Odermatt, and Albert Ward).
- Why Do Citizens Tolerate Undemocratic Behaviour? A Comment on Frederiksen (2022) (with Matthew Hepplewhite and Scott Moser).
- A Robustness Reproduction of Tappin, Berinsky and Rand (2023): “Partisans’ Receptivity to Persuasive Messaging is Undiminished by Countervailing Party Leader Cues” (with Edmund Kelly).
Other Publications
- Dataset: Building a Comprehensive Database on Conflict: Ethiopia, 1997–2017.
- BITSS Blog Post: Ensuring Reproducibility in Large Research Teams (2022).
Selected Works in Progress
- Technology Shocks Reshape the Geography of Human Activity: Global Evidence Since 1750 (with Neil Lee and Yohan Iddawela).
- Security Responses to Gender-Based Violence in Conflict: Evidence from IDP Camps in Nigeria (with Pilar Sanchez-Bellosta).
- Explaining the Emergence of Security Regimes.
- Refugee Camp Onset, Development, and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- Aerial Campaigns and Civilian Victimization: Evidence from Nigeria.